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Bawler / Netherlands: Eredivisie / NAC Breda

NAC Breda

Netherlands: Eredivisie

NAC Breda operate as a profligate attacking unit with underlying expected goals of 1.40 per match, yet their defensive frailty—conceding 1.65 xG per game—remains the core constraint on results. Recent form shows fragility: one win, two draws, and a loss across their last four settled fixtures reflects a team struggling to convert chances into points. With no upcoming fixtures immediately in the prediction window, the focus shifts to their next scheduled opponent; when that fixture lands, Bawler's 75% banker hit rate on Breda matches provides a solid foundation for model-backed selections. Their underlying shot profile suggests opportunity exists for both sides, particularly in unders markets where defensive leakiness is priced fairly.

> Attack vs Defence (xG per match)
Goals scored (xG)1.40-0.26 vs league
Goals conceded (xG)1.650.03 vs league
◇ = Netherlands: Eredivisie average. Lower xG conceded is better.

How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals NAC Breda were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the Netherlands: Eredivisie average — if the bar extends past the diamond, NAC Breda are above average there.

> xG performance · last 4 matches
0123@ Zwolle: actual 0, xG 1.43vs Sparta Rotterdam: actual 0, xG 1.36vs Heerenveen: actual 2, xG 1.68@ AZ Alkmaar: actual 3, xG 1.14@ZwolleSpartaHeeren@AZ Alk
Goals scoredModel xGAggregate -0.6 goals vs xG (-0.15/game)

How to read this: the solid line is the goals NAC Breda actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.

> What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.40 xG per match · -0.26 above the Netherlands: Eredivisie average of 1.66.
> Form · last 4
Overall: 1W / 2D / 1L · Avg goals 1.3 for, 1.3 against

How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from NAC Breda's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.

Matches Covered
4
4 settled
Avg xG Scored
1.40
per match
Avg xG Conceded
1.65
per match
Banker Hit Rate
75%
3/4 picks

> Recent matches (last 4)

> More from Bawler