> MATCH.PREDICT()·GERMANY: Bundesliga·Saturday 02 May, 13:30 UTC
Bayern Munich vs Heidenheim
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
76.7% home14.6% draw8.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Bayern MunichstepHeidenheim
2.80Base xG · rolling 26-match1.00
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
3.03Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.97
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
2
2
1
1
6
5
3
1
2
8
8
4
1
3
9
8
4
1
4
6
6
3
1
5
4
4
2
1
6
2
2
1
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Home Win + Over 7.5 Corners + Over 9.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 36.3% · @ 2.76x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Bayern Munich 3–3 Heidenheim
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+