FT · GERMANY: Bundesliga · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Bayern Munich 3–3 HeidenheimMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Bayern Munich at 77%, draw at 15%, Heidenheim at 9%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-3. The model's headline call was Bayern Munich to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Munich win
77%
Draw
15%
Actual ✓
Heidenheim win
9%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
3.03 – 0.97
Total 3.99
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+2.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 91%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 41%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
X2
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.76x
- Home Win✗
- Over 7.5 Corners✓
- Over 9.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓