FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Besiktas 1–2 TrabzonsporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Besiktas at 49%, draw at 26%, Trabzonspor at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Besiktas to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Besiktas win
49%
Draw
26%
Trabzonspor win
25%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.04 – 1.45
Total 3.49
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 50%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.14x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- 1X✗
- Over 22.5 Shots✓