> MATCH.PREDICT()·ENGLAND: Championship·Saturday 02 May, 11:30 UTC
Blackburn vs Leicester
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
49.1% home30.0% draw20.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BlackburnstepLeicester
1.39Base xG · rolling 26-match0.91
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.50Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.88
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
8
4
1
1
14
12
5
2
2
10
9
4
1
3
5
5
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Blackburn 0–1 Leicester
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+