FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Blackburn 0–1 LeicesterMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Blackburn at 49%, draw at 30%, Leicester at 21%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Blackburn to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Blackburn win
49%
Draw
30%
Leicester win
21%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.50 – 0.88
Total 2.38
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 79%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost