FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 23 May 2026
Bologna 3–3 InternazionaleMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 23 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Bologna at 26%, draw at 32%, Internazionale at 41%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-3. The model's headline call was Internazionale to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Bologna win
26%
Draw
32%
Actual ✓
Internazionale win
41%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.12 – 1.46
Total 2.58
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Inter's 41% win probability and dominant xG advantage (1.46 vs 1.12) justify backing the away victory despite Bologna's home status."