> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Saturday 23 May, 16:00 UTC
Bologna vs Internazionale
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Inter's 41% win probability and dominant xG advantage (1.46 vs 1.12) justify backing the away victory despite Bologna's home status.
Win probability
26.4% home32.2% draw41.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BolognastepInternazionale
1.04Base xG · rolling 26-match1.51
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.12Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.46
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
11
8
4
1
1
9
12
9
4
2
2
5
7
5
2
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Bologna 3–3 Internazionale
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+