> MATCH.PREDICT()·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Saturday 16 May, 17:00 UTC
Braga vs Estrela
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Braga's 1.72 xG dominance over Estrela's 1.05 makes BTTS No the value play despite even win odds.
Win probability
49.7% home29.4% draw20.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BragastepEstrela
1.59Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.72Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.05
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
3
1
1
11
11
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
3
5
6
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Braga 2–2 Estrela
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+