Bawler / PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal / Estrela
Team profile

Estrela Prediction

Per-game numbers from 36 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
10.7
a game
13.6 faced
On target
3.7
a game
4.6 faced
Goals
1.2 – 1.7
scored – conceded
a game, 36 matches
Corners
3.3
a game
5.6 against

Estrela prediction: Bawler's model rates Estrela at 1.38 expected goals scored and 1.43 conceded per match across 6 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 83% of the time. They have lost 1 of their last 5 settled matches. No Estrela fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Estrela sit close to the Liga Portugal average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.38 expected goals a game and conceding 1.43. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 1.83 a game against 1.38 expected. Across 6 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Estrela have been correct 83% of the time.

Estrela in numbers

36 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.2
Goals · per game
let in 1.7
Home 1.3Away 1.1
3.3
Corners · per game
give up 5.6
Home 3.7Away 2.9
10.7
Shots · per game
faced 13.6
Home 12.8Away 8.7
3.7
On target · per game
faced 4.6
Home 3.9Away 3.4
Last 6 games
15 Aug
2-2
@ Alverca
0-2
08 Aug
2-2
vs Sporting
5-4
16 May
2-2
@ Braga
1-7
11 May
0-0
vs Famalicao
3-10
02 May
2-3
@ Moreirense
4-1
26 Apr
1-2
vs Porto
0-6

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Attack vs defence

How Estrela compare with the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average, per match.

Goals for
1.38
Above average
Goals against
1.43
Leakier than most
Record
1W 4D 1L
6 settled
Real goals
1.8 – 1.3
For / against, per match
Scored1.38
Conceded1.43

The grey line on each bar is the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average (1.23 scored, 1.19 conceded).

What the data says
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.43 xG per match · +0.24 vs league average of 1.19.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Estrela fixtures (3/3).

How Bawler has done on Estrela

83%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 6, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%3/3
Result100%2/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

More on Estrela and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly