> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Saturday 06 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Brazil vs Egypt
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Brazil's 37% win probability at home barely edges Egypt's 32%, making the X2 (draw or away win) at 75% the mathematical lean in a fixture where expected goals sit just 0.11 apart.
Win probability
37.0% home31.1% draw31.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BrazilstepEgypt
1.41Base xG · rolling 26-match1.36
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.45Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.34
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Brazil 2–1 Egypt
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+