Bawler / Brazil vs Egypt / Recap
FT · World: International Friendly · Saturday, 06 June 2026

Brazil 2–1 EgyptMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 06 June 2026

Brazil
2–1
Brazil win
Egypt
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Brazil at 37%, draw at 31%, Egypt at 32%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Brazil.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Brazil win
37%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
Egypt win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 1.34
Total 2.79
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 75%
✗ Lost
Value
1X
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Brazil's 37% win probability at home barely edges Egypt's 32%, making the X2 (draw or away win) at 75% the mathematical lean in a fixture where expected goals sit just 0.11 apart."

> More from Bawler