> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 17 May, 14:00 UTC
Brentford vs Crystal Palace
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Brentford's weak Europa-push motivation and marginal xG edge (1.41 vs 1.33) make BTTS No the value play at 53%.
Win probability
36.1% home31.5% draw32.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BrentfordstepCrystal Palace
1.31Base xG · rolling 26-match1.38
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.41Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.33
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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0
6
9
6
3
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 7.5 SOT + Under 10.5 Corners
Model 24.1% · @ 4.15x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Brentford 2–2 Crystal Palace
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+