Bawler / England: Premier League / Brentford
Team profile

Brentford Prediction

Per-game numbers from 38 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
10.7
a game
13.3 faced
On target
3.9
a game
4.3 faced
Goals
1.4 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 38 matches
Next match
44%
Brentford win chance
vs Tottenham · Sat 22 Aug 16:30

Brentford prediction: for Brentford's next match — Brentford vs Tottenham on Saturday 22 Aug, 16:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Brentford win looks most likely (44%).

Brentford sit close to the Premier League average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.59 expected goals a game and conceding 1.51. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 1.00 goals a game against 1.59 expected. Next up is Tottenham Hotspur, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 44%.

Brentford in numbers

38 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 1.7Away 1.2
4.8
Corners · per game
give up 5.4
Home 4.4Away 5.2
10.7
Shots · per game
faced 13.3
Home 12.0Away 9.3
3.9
On target · per game
faced 4.3
Home 4.1Away 3.6
Last 6 games
24 May
1-1
@ Liverpool
2-14
17 May
2-2
vs Crystal Palace
9-4
09 May
0-3
@ Manchester City
2-10
02 May
3-0
vs West Ham
2-6
27 Apr
1-2
@ Manchester United
8-7
18 Apr
0-0
vs Fulham
9-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Tottenham · Saturday 22 Aug, 16:30 UTC

Win
44%
Brentford
Draw
26%
Loss
30%
Tottenham
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Brentford compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for
1.59
Above average
Goals against
1.51
Leakier than most
Record
1W 4D 1L
6 settled
Real goals
1.0 – 1.0
For / against, per match
Scored1.59
Conceded1.51

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.44 scored, 1.47 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.59 xG per match · +0.15 above the England: Premier League average of 1.44.

How Bawler has done on Brentford

67%
of high-confidence calls correct — 4 of 6
Goals (Over/Under)60%3/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Tue 25 Aug@ Birmingham City

Recent matches (last 6)

Sun 24 May@ Liverpool
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs Crystal Palace
High confidence: X2
Sat 09 May@ Manchester City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 02 Mayvs West Ham
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 18 Aprvs Fulham
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 21 Mar@ Leeds
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INMamadou SangaréDMfrom Lens€48m
INJaidon AnthonyLWfrom Burnley€18m
INJannik SchusterCBfrom Salzburg€18m
INCallum WilsonSTfrom West Ham UnitedFree transfer
INAidan StokesGKfrom Red Bull New YorkLoan
OUTRomelle DonovanRWto Sheffield UnitedLoan
OUTFrank OnyekaDMto Coventry City€7m
OUTJordan HendersonDMto Free agentFree transfer
OUTTony YoganeLWto AberdeenUndisclosed
OUTBenjamin ArthurCBto PortsmouthLoan
OUTMatthew CoxGKto BarnetLoan
OUTMichael OlakigbeSTto WSG TirolLoan
OUTBen KrauhausAMto FalkirkLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

FPL assets at this club (2026/27 projections)

ThiagoThiagoFWD · £8.0m · 16.9% owned3.9 pts
O.DangoO.DangoMID · £6.5m · 1.4% owned3.6 pts
CollinsCollinsDEF · £5.5m · 2% owned3.6 pts
KelleherKelleherGKP · £5.0m · 5.8% owned3.3 pts
SchadeSchadeMID · £6.0m · 2.7% owned2.9 pts
Next 5:TOT (H)LEE (A)SUN (H)BOU (A)CHE (H)

Full predicted points table → · Fixture difficulty matrix →

More on Brentford and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly