> MATCH.PREDICT()·France: Ligue 1·Sunday 17 May, 19:00 UTC
Brest vs Angers
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Brest's 42% xG advantage and superior attacking metrics justify backing 1X at 77% probability despite modest win odds.
Win probability
44.6% home31.1% draw24.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BreststepAngers
1.45Base xG · rolling 26-match1.15
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.56Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.10
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
4
2
1
11
12
7
2
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Brest 1–1 Angers
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+