> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 24 May, 15:00 UTC
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester United
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Manchester United's Champions League desperation clashes with Brighton's superior xG (1.58-1.40), creating attacking intensity that favors Over 1.5 Goals at 78% probability.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
Brighton & Hove Albion
Pushing for Europa/Conference
7th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by +3.2% for motivation
Away
Manchester United
Win probability
38.9% home29.9% draw31.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Brighton & Hove AlbionstepManchester United
1.46Base xG · rolling 26-match1.45
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.58Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.40
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
7
5
2
1
1
8
11
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
3
5
3
2
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Brighton & Hove Albion 0–3 Manchester United
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+