Bawler / England: Premier League / Brighton
Team profile

Brighton Prediction

Per-game numbers from 38 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.0
a game
11.7 faced
On target
4.6
a game
3.9 faced
Goals
1.4 – 1.2
scored – conceded
a game, 38 matches
Next match
44%
Brighton win chance
vs Aston Villa · Sun 23 Aug 13:00

Brighton prediction: for Brighton's next match — Brighton vs Aston Villa on Sunday 23 Aug, 13:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Brighton win looks most likely (44%).

Brighton sit close to the Premier League average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.57 expected goals a game and conceding 1.34. They have struggled lately, losing 3 of their last 5. Next up is Aston Villa, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 44%.

Brighton in numbers

38 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.2
Home 1.6Away 1.2
4.9
Corners · per game
give up 4.8
Home 5.0Away 4.8
13.0
Shots · per game
faced 11.7
Home 13.7Away 12.3
4.6
On target · per game
faced 3.9
Home 5.0Away 4.3
Last 6 games
24 May
0-3
vs Manchester United
0-3
17 May
0-1
@ Leeds
8-7
09 May
3-0
vs Wolverhampton
7-1
02 May
1-3
@ Newcastle
10-2
21 Apr
3-0
vs Chelsea
6-5
18 Apr
2-2
@ Tottenham
5-7

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Aston Villa · Sunday 23 Aug, 13:00 UTC

Win
44%
Brighton
Draw
27%
Loss
28%
Aston Villa
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Brighton compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for
1.57
Above average
Goals against
1.34
Tighter than most
Record
2W 1D 3L
6 settled
Real goals
1.3 – 1.7
For / against, per match
Scored1.57
Conceded1.34

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.44 scored, 1.47 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 80% of the time on Brighton fixtures (4/5).

How Bawler has done on Brighton

83%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 6, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)80%4/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Sun 24 Mayvs Manchester United
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ Leeds United
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 09 Mayvs Wolverhampton Wanderers
High confidence: 1X
Sat 02 May@ Newcastle
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 18 Apr@ Tottenham
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 21 Marvs Liverpool
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INLuka VuskovicCBfrom Tottenham Hotspur€54m
INZadok YohannaRWfrom AIK€28m
INPascal StruijkCBfrom Leeds United€23m
INCostinhaRBfrom Olympiacos€13m
INMichael SvobodaCBfrom Venezia€5m
INRodrigo RêgoRWfrom BenficaUndisclosed
INValentin JosephSTfrom Blackburn RoversUndisclosed
OUTJan Paul van HeckeCBto Tottenham Hotspur€60m
OUTCarl RushworthGKto Coventry City€26m
OUTDanny WelbeckSTto Chelsea€5.8m
OUTDiego CoppolaCBto Paris FC€18m
OUTFacundo BuonanotteAMto ElcheLoan
OUTJames BeadleGKto Birmingham CityLoan
OUTJeremy SarmientoLWto Middlesbrough€3.9m
OUTAdam WebsterCBto Free agentFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Brighton and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly