Bawler / England: Premier League / Manchester United
Team profile

Manchester United Prediction

Per-game numbers from 38 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
15.7
a game
11.6 faced
On target
5.7
a game
3.7 faced
Goals
1.8 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 38 matches
Next match
61%
Manchester United win chance
at Hull · Sat 22 Aug 11:30

Manchester United prediction: for Manchester United's next match — Hull vs Manchester United on Saturday 22 Aug, 11:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Manchester United win looks most likely (61%).

Manchester United sit close to the Premier League average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.60 expected goals a game and conceding 1.52. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Next up is a trip to Hull City, where the model makes them clear favourites at 61%.

Manchester United in numbers

38 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.8
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 2.0Away 1.6
4.8
Corners · per game
give up 4.9
Home 5.3Away 4.3
15.7
Shots · per game
faced 11.6
Home 17.9Away 13.5
5.7
On target · per game
faced 3.7
Home 6.8Away 4.5
Last 6 games
24 May
3-0
@ Brighton
3-0
17 May
3-2
vs Nott'm Forest
7-6
09 May
0-0
@ Sunderland
7-6
03 May
3-2
vs Liverpool
3-2
27 Apr
2-1
vs Brentford
7-8
18 Apr
1-0
@ Chelsea
1-7

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Hull · Saturday 22 Aug, 11:30 UTC

Win
61%
This team
Draw
24%
Loss
15%
Hull
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Manchester United compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for
1.60
Above average
Goals against
1.52
Leakier than most
Record
3W 2D 0L
5 settled
Real goals
1.8 – 0.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.60
Conceded1.52

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.44 scored, 1.47 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.60 xG per match · +0.17 above the England: Premier League average of 1.44.

How Bawler has done on Manchester United

80%
of high-confidence calls correct — 4 of 5, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)67%2/3
Result100%2/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Sun 24 May@ Brighton & Hove Albion
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs Nottingham Forest
High confidence: 1X
Sat 09 May@ Sunderland
High confidence: X2
Sat 18 Apr@ Chelsea
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 20 Mar@ Bournemouth
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INAndrey SantosDMfrom Chelsea€56m
INYouri TielemansDMfrom Aston Villa€41m
INKarl DarlowGKfrom Leeds UnitedFree transfer
INCristian OrozcoDMfrom Fortaleza FCUndisclosed
OUTRasmus HøjlundSTto Napoli€44m
OUTJadon SanchoRWto Free agentFree transfer
OUTAndré OnanaGKto TrabzonsporLoan
OUTRadek VítekGKto Middlesbrough€8.1m
OUTCasemiroDMto Free agentFree transfer
OUTAltay BayindirGKto Celta VigoLoan
OUTCasemiroDMto Inter Miami CFFree transfer
OUTTyrell MalaciaLBto Free agentFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

FPL assets at this club (2026/27 projections)

B.FernandesB.FernandesMID · £12.0m · 48.1% owned5.0 pts
MbeumoMbeumoMID · £8.0m · 28.5% owned4.2 pts
LammensLammensGKP · £5.0m · 18.9% owned3.2 pts
CunhaCunhaMID · £8.0m · 11.7% owned3.2 pts
DalotDalotDEF · £5.0m · 3% owned2.5 pts
Next 5:HUL (A)IPS (H)EVE (A)MCI (H)FUL (A)

Full predicted points table → · Fixture difficulty matrix →

More on Manchester United and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly