FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Burnley 1–1 Wolverhampton WanderersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Burnley at 27%, draw at 33%, Wolverhampton Wanderers at 40%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Wolverhampton Wanderers to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Burnley win
27%
Draw
33%
Actual ✓
Wanderers win
40%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.09 – 1.37
Total 2.46
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Wolves' superior xG (1.37 vs 1.09) and 40% win probability justify backing the away win despite Burnley's relegation desperation at home."