> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 24 May, 15:00 UTC
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Wolves' superior xG (1.37 vs 1.09) and 40% win probability justify backing the away win despite Burnley's relegation desperation at home.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
Burnley
Relegation confirmed
Mathematically down · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −2.1% for motivation
Away
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Relegation confirmed
Mathematically down · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −2.1% for motivation
Win probability
27.0% home33.3% draw39.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BurnleystepWolverhampton Wanderers
1.01Base xG · rolling 26-match1.42
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.09Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.37
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
12
8
4
1
1
9
13
9
4
1
2
5
7
5
2
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Burnley 1–1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+