Bawler / England: Premier League / Burnley
Team profile

Burnley Prediction

Per-game numbers from 40 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
9.5
a game
16.2 faced
On target
3.1
a game
5.5 faced
Goals
1.1 – 1.9
scored – conceded
a game, 40 matches
Next match
14%
Burnley win chance
at West Brom · Sun 23 Aug 11:00

Burnley prediction: for Burnley's next match — West Brom vs Burnley on Sunday 23 Aug, 11:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it West Brom are favoured (57%).

Burnley are vulnerable at the back, conceding 1.80 expected goals a game against a Premier League average of 1.47. Next up is a trip to West Bromwich Albion, where the model has them as underdogs at 14%.

Burnley in numbers

40 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.1
Goals · per game
let in 1.9
Home 1.1Away 1.1
3.6
Corners · per game
give up 5.8
Home 3.8Away 3.5
9.5
Shots · per game
faced 16.2
Home 10.9Away 7.8
3.1
On target · per game
faced 5.5
Home 3.4Away 2.9
Last 6 games
08 Aug
2-1
vs Notts Co
4-3
08 Aug
2-1
vs Notts County
4-3
24 May
1-1
vs Wolverhampton
7-7
18 May
0-1
@ Arsenal
3-3
10 May
2-2
vs Aston Villa
2-8
01 May
1-3
@ Leeds
0-5

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs West Brom · Sunday 23 Aug, 11:00 UTC

Win
14%
Burnley
Draw
29%
Loss
57%
West Brom
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Burnley compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for
1.02
Below average
Goals against
1.80
Leakier than most
Record
1W 2D 3L
6 settled
Real goals
1.2 – 1.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.02
Conceded1.80

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.44 scored, 1.47 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.02 xG per match · -0.42 above the England: Premier League average of 1.44.
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.80 xG per match · +0.33 vs league average of 1.47.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Burnley fixtures (6/6).

How Bawler has done on Burnley

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 6, well above the ~65% baseline
Result100%6/6

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

Sat 08 Augvs Notts County
High confidence: Burnley or Draw
Sun 24 Mayvs Wolverhampton Wanderers
High confidence: X2
Mon 18 May@ Arsenal
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 Mayvs Aston Villa
High confidence: X2
Fri 01 May@ Leeds
High confidence: 1X
Sat 21 Mar@ Fulham
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INFlorentinoCMfrom Benfica€24m
INUgo RaghouberDMfrom Lille€5m
INDastan SatpaevSTfrom ChelseaLoan
INLluc Castellfrom EspanyolUndisclosed
INBen AmosGKfrom Port ValeFree transfer
INMax AlleyneCBfrom Manchester CityLoan
OUTJaidon AnthonyLWto Brentford€18m
OUTMaxime EstèveCBto RB Leipzig€25m
OUTLoum TchaounaRWto Coventry City€23m
OUTFlorentinoCMto Ipswich Town€19m
OUTLuca KoleoshoLWto Paris FC€14m
OUTQuilindschy HartmanLBto EspanyolLoan
OUTLesley UgochukwuDMto GalatasarayLoan
OUTOluwaseun AdewumiSTto Hertha BSCLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Burnley and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly