> MATCH.PREDICT()·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Saturday 16 May, 17:00 UTC
C.D. Nacional vs Vitória de Guimaraes
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Guimaraes' defensive solidity edges Nacional's modest attack in a low-scoring affair, backing BTTS No despite balanced xG.
Win probability
37.2% home32.3% draw30.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
C.D. NacionalstepVitória de Guimaraes
1.28Base xG · rolling 26-match1.29
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.39Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.24
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
C.D. Nacional 2–0 Vitória de Guimaraes
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+