Bawler / Portugal: Primeira Liga / Vitória de Guimaraes
Team profile

Vitória de Guimaraes Prediction

Per-game numbers from 4 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
16.0
a game
6.3 faced
On target
3.0
a game
3.3 faced
Goals
0.5 – 1.8
scored – conceded
a game, 4 matches
Next match
11%
Vitória de Guimaraes win chance
vs C.D. Nacional · Sun 23 Aug 14:30

Vitória de Guimaraes prediction: for Vitória de Guimaraes's next match — Vitória de Guimaraes vs C.D. Nacional on Sunday 23 Aug, 14:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it C.D. Nacional are favoured (55%).

Vitória de Guimaraes sit close to the Primeira Liga average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.58 expected goals a game and conceding 1.34. Recent form is poor — 4 defeats in a row. Next up is C.D. Nacional, where the model has them as underdogs at 11%.

Vitória de Guimaraes in numbers

4 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
0.5
Goals · per game
let in 1.8
Home 0.0Away 1.0
4.5
Corners · per game
give up 3.3
Home 5.5Away 3.5
16.0
Shots · per game
faced 6.3
Home 19.5Away 12.5
3.0
On target · per game
faced 3.3
Home 2.5Away 3.5
Last 4 games
14 Aug
2-3
@ Sporting
1-5
08 Aug
0-1
vs Arouca
5-2
16 May
0-2
@ C.D. Nacional
6-2
11 May
0-1
vs Casa Pia
6-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs C.D. Nacional · Sunday 23 Aug, 14:30 UTC

Win
11%
This team
Draw
33%
Loss
55%
Opponent
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Vitória de Guimaraes compare with the Portugal: Primeira Liga average, per match.

Goals for
1.58
Above average
Goals against
1.34
Tighter than most
Record
0W 0D 4L
4 settled
Real goals
0.5 – 1.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.58
Conceded1.34

The grey line on each bar is the Portugal: Primeira Liga average (1.35 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.58 xG per match · +0.23 above the Portugal: Primeira Liga average of 1.35.
4-match losing run
Form line shows consecutive losses in their most recent settled fixtures. Confidence is low going into the next match.

How Bawler has done on Vitória de Guimaraes

Goals (Over/Under)50%1/2
Result0%0/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 4)

Fri 14 Aug@ Sporting CP
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 08 Augvs Arouca
High confidence: 1X
Sat 16 May@ C.D. Nacional
High confidence: X2
Mon 11 Mayvs Casa Pia
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INOliwier ZychGKfrom Aston VillaLoan
INYeimar MosqueraCBfrom Aston Villa€475k
INPatrick OuotroSTfrom NancyUndisclosed
INLohann DoucetDMfrom Paris FCUndisclosed
INAbdoulaye SidibéRMfrom VeneziaLoan
OUTDiogo SousaDMto Strasbourg€10m
OUTNoah SavioloLWto TrabzonsporUndisclosed
OUTDieu-Merci MichelSTto United FCUndisclosed
OUTNélson OliveiraSTto Free agentFree transfer
OUTRodrigo DuarteRWto Pacos de FerreiraLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Vitória de Guimaraes and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly