FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 16 May 2026
C.D. Nacional 2–0 Vitória de GuimaraesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 16 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had C.D. Nacional at 37%, draw at 32%, Vitória de Guimaraes at 31%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward C.D. Nacional.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Nacional win
37%
Actual ✓
Draw
32%
Guimaraes win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.39 – 1.24
Total 2.63
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.35x
- X2✗
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Guimaraes' defensive solidity edges Nacional's modest attack in a low-scoring affair, backing BTTS No despite balanced xG."