> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 17 May, 18:45 UTC
Cagliari vs Torino
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Torino's slight xG edge (1.18 vs 1.23) combined with defensive solidity makes Draw/Away at 72% the model's strongest play despite balanced win odds.
Win probability
34.0% home34.0% draw32.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
CagliaristepTorino
1.14Base xG · rolling 26-match1.23
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.23Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.18
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
11
6
2
1
1
11
13
8
3
1
2
7
8
5
2
1
3
3
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Cagliari 2–1 Torino
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+