Bawler / Italy: Serie A / Cagliari
Team profile

Cagliari Prediction

Per-game numbers from 39 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
11.0
a game
13.1 faced
On target
3.5
a game
4.6 faced
Goals
1.1 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 39 matches
Next match
31%
Cagliari win chance
at Parma · Sat 22 Aug 18:45

Cagliari prediction: for Cagliari's next match — Parma vs Cagliari on Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Parma are favoured (37%).

Cagliari sit close to the Serie A average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.04 expected goals a game and conceding 1.51. Next up is a trip to Parma, where the model has them as underdogs at 31%.

Cagliari in numbers

39 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.1
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 1.1Away 0.9
3.8
Corners · per game
give up 5.1
Home 4.1Away 3.4
11.0
Shots · per game
faced 13.1
Home 10.9Away 11.1
3.5
On target · per game
faced 4.6
Home 3.4Away 3.5
Last 6 games
14 Aug
1-0
vs Arezzo
3-4
24 May
2-1
@ AC Milan
5-5
17 May
2-1
vs Torino
5-1
09 May
0-2
vs Udinese
8-4
03 May
0-0
@ Bologna
2-7
27 Apr
3-2
vs Atalanta
4-6

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Parma · Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win
31%
Cagliari
Draw
32%
Loss
37%
Parma
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Cagliari compare with the Italy: Serie A average, per match.

Goals for
1.04
Below average
Goals against
1.51
Leakier than most
Record
2W 0D 3L
5 settled
Real goals
0.8 – 1.6
For / against, per match
Scored1.04
Conceded1.51

The grey line on each bar is the Italy: Serie A average (1.24 scored, 1.32 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.04 xG per match · -0.20 above the Italy: Serie A average of 1.24.
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.51 xG per match · +0.19 vs league average of 1.32.

How Bawler has done on Cagliari

60%
of high-confidence calls correct — 3 of 5
Result50%2/4

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Sun 24 May@ AC Milan
High confidence: 1X
Sun 17 Mayvs Torino
High confidence: X2
Sat 09 Mayvs Udinese
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 17 Apr@ Inter
High confidence: 1X
Fri 20 Marvs Napoli
High confidence: X2

Transfer activity

INJacopo FazziniLWfrom FiorentinaLoan
INDaniel MaldiniSTfrom AtalantaLoan
INRaphael KoflerCBfrom SüdtirolLoan
INSebastiano EspositoSTfrom Inter€4m
INKevin CarlosSTfrom NiceLoan
INHarry WinksDMfrom Leicester CityUndisclosed
INAlessando RomanoCMfrom RomaLoan
INKingstone MutandwaSTfrom RiedUndisclosed
OUTGianluca GaetanoCMto Atalanta€12m
OUTZito LuvumboRWto MallorcaLoan
OUTOthniël RaterinkRBto ADO Den HaagLoan
OUTNik PrelecSTto Oxford UnitedUndisclosed
OUTDavide VeroliCBto SüdtirolLoan
OUTAndrea BelottiSTto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTKingstone MutandwaSTto Ried€750k
OUTMateusz WieteskaCBto WieczystaUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Cagliari and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly