FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Cagliari 2–1 TorinoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Cagliari at 34%, draw at 34%, Torino at 32%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Cagliari.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Cagliari win
34%
Actual ✓
Draw
34%
Torino win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.23 – 1.18
Total 2.41
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.14x
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✗
- X2✗
> What we said pre-match
"Torino's slight xG edge (1.18 vs 1.23) combined with defensive solidity makes Draw/Away at 72% the model's strongest play despite balanced win odds."