> MATCH.PREDICT()·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Saturday 16 May, 17:00 UTC
Casa Pia vs Rio Ave
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Rio Ave's draw probability (33%) and away resilience justify X2 backing at 80%, despite near-parity in xG suggesting competitive balance.
Win probability
34.6% home33.1% draw32.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Casa PiastepRio Ave
1.19Base xG · rolling 26-match1.29
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.29Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.24
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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5
6
0
8
10
6
3
1
1
10
13
8
3
1
2
7
8
5
2
1
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3
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2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Casa Pia 1–1 Rio Ave
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+