Bawler / PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal / Casa Pia
Team profile

Casa Pia Prediction

Per-game numbers from 36 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
8.9
a game
13.7 faced
On target
2.9
a game
4.4 faced
Goals
0.9 – 1.6
scored – conceded
a game, 36 matches
Next match
27%
Casa Pia win chance
vs Benfica · Mon 17 Aug 19:15

Casa Pia prediction: for Casa Pia's next match — Casa Pia vs Benfica on Monday 17 Aug, 19:15 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Benfica are favoured (39%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Casa Pia are vulnerable at the back, conceding 1.53 expected goals a game against a Liga Portugal average of 1.19. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 0.50 goals a game against 1.11 expected. Next up is Benfica, where the model has them as underdogs at 27%.

Casa Pia in numbers

36 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
0.9
Goals · per game
let in 1.6
Home 1.1Away 0.7
4.1
Corners · per game
give up 5.8
Home 3.6Away 4.5
8.9
Shots · per game
faced 13.7
Home 8.3Away 9.5
2.9
On target · per game
faced 4.4
Home 2.7Away 3.2
Last 6 games
08 Aug
0-1
@ Maritimo
6-2
16 May
1-1
vs Rio Ave
9-0
11 May
1-0
@ Vitoria Guimaraes
4-6
11 May
1-0
@ Vitória de Guimaraes
4-6
03 May
0-1
vs Tondela
7-2
27 Apr
1-2
@ Gil Vicente
3-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Benfica · Monday 17 Aug, 19:15 UTC

Win
27%
Casa Pia
Draw
34%
Loss
39%
Benfica
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 77%
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Casa Pia compare with the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average, per match.

Goals for
1.11
Below average
Goals against
1.53
Leakier than most
Record
1W 3D 2L
6 settled
Real goals
0.5 – 1.2
For / against, per match
Scored1.11
Conceded1.53

The grey line on each bar is the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average (1.23 scored, 1.19 conceded).

What the data says
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.53 xG per match · +0.35 vs league average of 1.19.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Casa Pia fixtures (4/4).
Squad availability · Casa Pia vs Benfica
Fetching squad availability…

Injuries, suspensions and doubts for both squads, from FotMob. Updates as kickoff nears.

How Bawler has done on Casa Pia

83%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 6, well above the ~65% baseline
Result100%4/4
Goals (Over/Under)50%1/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Mon 24 Aug@ Gil Vicente

Recent matches (last 6)

Sat 08 Aug@ Maritimo
High confidence: 1X
Sat 16 Mayvs Rio Ave
High confidence: X2
Mon 11 May@ Vitória de Guimaraes
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 18 Aprvs Santa Clara
High confidence: X2
Mon 06 Aprvs Benfica
High confidence: X2
Fri 20 Mar@ Estrela
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

More on Casa Pia and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly