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Bawler / PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal / Casa Pia

Casa Pia

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal

Casa Pia operate as a modest, defensively-minded outfit, conceding 1.53 xG per match against a meagre 1.11 created—a profile built on compact defending rather than attacking thrust. Their recent run reflects this cautious approach: one win, three draws and a loss across five settled matches signals a team grinding results without consistency. With no upcoming fixtures in the immediate window, focus remains on understanding their underlying structure. Bawler's banker selections on Casa Pia have maintained an 80% strike rate, validating the model's ability to isolate value in their low-variance, defensive-first matches.

> Attack vs Defence (xG per match)
Goals scored (xG)1.11-0.18 vs league
Goals conceded (xG)1.53+0.14 vs league
◇ = PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average. Lower xG conceded is better.

How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals Casa Pia were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average — if the bar extends past the diamond, Casa Pia are above average there.

> xG performance · last 5 matches
01234@ Estrela: actual 0, xG 1.22vs Benfica: actual 1, xG 0.91vs Santa Clara: actual 0, xG 0.83@ Vitória de Guimaraes: actual 1, xG 1.30vs Rio Ave: actual 1, xG 1.29@EstrelBenficSanta @VitóriRio Av
Goals scoredModel xGAggregate -2.5 goals vs xG (-0.51/game)

How to read this: the solid line is the goals Casa Pia actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.

> What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.11 xG per match · -0.18 above the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal average of 1.29.
Bawler's edge: Result
Banker picks in this market land 100% of the time on Casa Pia fixtures (3/3).
> Form · last 5
Overall: 1W / 3D / 1L · Avg goals 0.6 for, 1.2 against

How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from Casa Pia's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.

Matches Covered
5
5 settled
Avg xG Scored
1.11
per match
Avg xG Conceded
1.53
per match
Banker Hit Rate
80%
4/5 picks
> Bawler's Banker picks on Casa Pia matches
80%
hit rate over 5 picks

When Bawler issues a Banker pick on a Casa Pia fixture, the model lands 4 out of 5 (80%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every pick is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

> Bawler's record on Casa Pia by market
Result100%3/3
Goals (Over/Under)50%1/2

How to read this: each row groups settled Banker picks Bawler issued on Casa Pia fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Casa Pia matches.

> Recent matches (last 5)

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