> MATCH.PREDICT()·Turkey: Süper Lig·Friday 15 May, 17:00 UTC
Caykur Rizespor vs Besiktas
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Besiktas' Europa qualification urgency and xG advantage (1.46 vs 1.28) justify the 72% X2 pick despite Rizespor's home ground.
Win probability
30.3% home31.4% draw38.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Caykur RizesporstepBesiktas
1.18Base xG · rolling 26-match1.52
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.28Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.46
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
6
9
7
3
1
1
8
12
9
4
2
2
5
8
6
3
1
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3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Caykur Rizespor 2–2 Besiktas
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+