FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Friday, 15 May 2026
Caykur Rizespor 2–2 BesiktasMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 15 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Caykur Rizespor at 30%, draw at 31%, Besiktas at 38%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Besiktas to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rizespor win
30%
Draw
31%
Actual ✓
Besiktas win
38%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.28 – 1.46
Total 2.74
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Value
1X
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.69x
- Under 10.5 Corners✗
- X2✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Besiktas' Europa qualification urgency and xG advantage (1.46 vs 1.28) justify the 72% X2 pick despite Rizespor's home ground."