> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Saturday 23 May, 19:00 UTC
Celta Vigo vs Sevilla
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Celta's Champions League desperation and xG advantage (1.44 vs 1.09) makes 1X at 74% the banker, exploiting Sevilla's relegation distraction and defensive vulnerability.
Win probability
41.6% home32.5% draw25.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Celta VigostepSevilla
1.33Base xG · rolling 26-match1.13
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.44Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.09
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
11
13
7
2
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Celta Vigo 1–0 Sevilla
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+