Bawler / Spain: La Liga / Sevilla
Team profile

Sevilla Prediction

Per-game numbers from 39 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
11.5
a game
10.5 faced
On target
3.6
a game
4.2 faced
Goals
1.2 – 1.6
scored – conceded
a game, 39 matches
Next match
15%
Sevilla win chance
at Athletic Bilbao · Sat 22 Aug 15:00

Sevilla prediction: for Sevilla's next match — Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla on Saturday 22 Aug, 15:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Athletic Bilbao are favoured (57%).

Sevilla sit close to the La Liga average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.33 expected goals a game and conceding 1.48. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 1.00 goals a game against 1.33 expected. Next up is a trip to Athletic Club, where the model has them as underdogs at 15%.

Sevilla in numbers

39 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.2
Goals · per game
let in 1.6
Home 1.3Away 1.2
4.7
Corners · per game
give up 4.5
Home 4.4Away 5.0
11.5
Shots · per game
faced 10.5
Home 12.1Away 10.9
3.6
On target · per game
faced 4.2
Home 4.0Away 3.3
Last 6 games
15 Aug
2-1
vs Rayo Vallecano
1-2
23 May
0-1
@ Celta Vigo
3-4
17 May
0-1
vs Real Madrid
4-4
13 May
3-2
@ Villarreal
4-6
09 May
2-1
vs Espanyol
4-6
04 May
1-0
vs Real Sociedad
3-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Athletic Bilbao · Saturday 22 Aug, 15:00 UTC

Win
15%
Sevilla
Draw
29%
Loss
57%
Opponent
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Sevilla compare with the Spain: La Liga average, per match.

Goals for
1.33
Below average
Goals against
1.48
Leakier than most
Record
3W 0D 5L
8 settled
Real goals
1.0 – 1.4
For / against, per match
Scored1.33
Conceded1.48

The grey line on each bar is the Spain: La Liga average (1.44 scored, 1.46 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Sevilla fixtures (4/4).

How Bawler has done on Sevilla

88%
of high-confidence calls correct — 7 of 8, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%4/4
Result67%2/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 8)

Sat 15 Augvs Rayo Vallecano
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 23 May@ Celta Vigo
High confidence: 1X
Sun 17 Mayvs Real Madrid
High confidence: X2
Wed 13 May@ Villarreal
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 09 Mayvs Espanyol
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Apr@ Osasuna
High confidence: Osasuna or Draw (Double Chance)
Sun 05 Apr@ Oviedo
High confidence: X2
Sat 21 Marvs Valencia
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INPatrik MercadoAMfrom Independiente del Valle€6m
INArouna SanganteCBfrom Le HavreFree transfer
INJuan IglesiasLWBfrom Free agentFree transfer
INFran GonzálezGKfrom Real Madrid€3m
INRobbie UreSTfrom SiriusUndisclosed
INJon GuridiCMfrom Free agentFree transfer
INJulio DíazLBfrom Atletico Madrid€1m
OUTAkor AdamsSTto Venezia€16m
OUTJuanlu SánchezRWBto AFC Bournemouth€11m
OUTDjibril SowCMto Genoa€4m
OUTRafa MirSTto Aris ThessalonikiFree transfer
OUTNemanja GudeljCBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTTanguy NianzouCBto LilleFree transfer
OUTAlexis SánchezSTto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTJoan JordánAMto Estrela da AmadoraFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Sevilla and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly