> MATCH.PREDICT()·BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League - Relegation Group·Friday 01 May, 18:45 UTC
Cercle Brugge KSV vs Waregem
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
45.9% home28.1% draw26.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Cercle Brugge KSVstepWaregem
1.52Base xG · rolling 26-match1.22
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.64Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.18
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
6
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2
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10
12
7
3
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8
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2
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1
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6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 7.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 11.3% · @ 8.81x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Cercle Brugge KSV 2–3 Waregem
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+