Pre-match, Bawler had Cercle Brugge KSV at 46%, draw at 28%, Waregem at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was Cercle Brugge KSV to win.
Match overperformed xG by 2.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.