> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 16 May, 20:30 UTC
CF Montréal vs Chicago Fire FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Chicago's superior xG (1.58 vs 1.47) combined with away-win underpricing at 47% odds makes the Fire the model's standout value play despite home-field disadvantage.
Win probability
32.9% home29.5% draw37.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
CF MontréalstepChicago Fire FC
1.36Base xG · rolling 26-match1.64
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.47Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.58
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
5
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3
1
1
7
11
9
5
2
1
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5
8
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3
1
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3
2
1
4
1
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
CF Montréal 0–2 Chicago Fire FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+