FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 16 May 2026
CF Montréal 0–2 Chicago Fire FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 16 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had CF Montréal at 33%, draw at 30%, Chicago Fire FC at 38%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Chicago Fire FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Montréal win
33%
Draw
30%
FC win
38%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.47 – 1.58
Total 3.05
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 47%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.67x
- Under 10.5 Corners✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✗
- 1X✗
> What we said pre-match
"Chicago's superior xG (1.58 vs 1.47) combined with away-win underpricing at 47% odds makes the Fire the model's standout value play despite home-field disadvantage."