> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 09 May, 20:30 UTC
CF Montréal vs Orlando City SC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
45.1% home34.4% draw20.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
CF MontréalstepOrlando City SC
1.24Base xG · rolling 26-match0.87
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.34Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.83
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
9
4
1
1
15
13
5
1
2
10
9
4
1
3
5
4
2
4
2
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
CF Montréal 2–0 Orlando City SC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+