FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 09 May 2026
CF Montréal 2–0 Orlando City SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had CF Montréal at 45%, draw at 34%, Orlando City SC at 21%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward CF Montréal.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Montréal win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
34%
SC win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.34 – 0.83
Total 2.18
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost