> MATCH.PREDICT()·BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League - Conference League Group·Saturday 02 May, 16:15 UTC
Charleroi vs Genk
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
38.5% home29.3% draw32.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
CharleroistepGenk
1.34Base xG · rolling 26-match1.35
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.44Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.30
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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8
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12
8
3
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1
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 11.9% · @ 8.40x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Charleroi 2–0 Genk
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+