FT · BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League - Conference League Group · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Charleroi 2–0 GenkMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Charleroi at 38%, draw at 29%, Genk at 32%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Charleroi.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Charleroi win
38%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Genk win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.44 – 1.30
Total 2.74
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 8.40x
- 1X✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✗