FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Charlotte FC 2–2 FC CincinnatiMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Charlotte FC at 32%, draw at 35%, FC Cincinnati at 32%. The match ended 2-2 — confirming the model's lean toward a draw.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
32%
Draw
35%
Actual ✓
Cincinnati win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.12 – 1.12
Total 2.24
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 46%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 19%
✓ Won