> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 09 May, 23:30 UTC
Charlotte FC vs FC Cincinnati
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
32.3% home35.4% draw32.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Charlotte FCstepFC Cincinnati
1.04Base xG · rolling 26-match1.17
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.12Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.12
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
12
7
2
1
1
12
13
7
3
1
2
7
7
4
2
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Charlotte FC 2–2 FC Cincinnati
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+