FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 14 May 2026
Charlotte FC 0–1 New York City FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 14 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Charlotte FC at 36%, draw at 31%, New York City FC at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Charlotte FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
36%
Draw
31%
FC win
33%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.49 – 1.41
Total 2.90
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 49%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 31%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 1.89x
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- X2✓
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 79% probability despite identical xG compression, making it the sole reliable edge in this evenly matched low-scoring setup."