> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Wednesday 13 May, 23:15 UTC
Charlotte FC vs New York City FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 79% probability despite identical xG compression, making it the sole reliable edge in this evenly matched low-scoring setup.
Win probability
36.5% home30.5% draw33.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Charlotte FCstepNew York City FC
1.38Base xG · rolling 26-match1.46
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.49Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.41
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
8
5
3
1
1
8
12
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Charlotte FC 0–1 New York City FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+