FT · ENGLAND: FA Cup · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Chelsea 1–0 LeedsMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Chelsea at 45%, draw at 25%, Leeds at 29%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Chelsea.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Chelsea win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Leeds win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.20
Total 2.75
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Chelsea or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost