> MATCH.PREDICT()·ENGLAND: FA Cup·Saturday 16 May, 16:30 UTC
Chelsea vs Manchester City
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
37.9% home28.6% draw33.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ChelseastepManchester City
1.53Base xG · rolling 26-match1.61
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.66Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.55
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
6
5
3
1
1
7
10
8
4
2
1
2
6
9
7
3
1
3
3
5
4
2
1
4
1
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Chelsea 0–1 Manchester City
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+