> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 03 May, 00:30 UTC
Chicago Fire FC vs FC Cincinnati
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
57.6% home23.7% draw18.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Chicago Fire FCstepFC Cincinnati
1.95Base xG · rolling 26-match1.16
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.10Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.12
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
4
2
1
1
8
9
5
2
1
2
9
10
6
2
1
3
6
7
4
1
4
3
4
2
1
5
1
2
1
6
1
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Chicago Fire FC 2–3 FC Cincinnati
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+