FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 03 May 2026
Chicago Fire FC 2–3 FC CincinnatiMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Chicago Fire FC at 58%, draw at 24%, FC Cincinnati at 19%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was Chicago Fire FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
58%
Draw
24%
Cincinnati win
19%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.10 – 1.12
Total 3.22
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Value
X2
Pre-match: 42%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 19%
✓ Won