Bawler / USA: MLS / Cincinnati
Team profile

Cincinnati Prediction

Per-game numbers from 53 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.5
a game
14.7 faced
On target
5.5
a game
4.9 faced
Goals
1.8 – 1.6
scored – conceded
a game, 53 matches
Next match
45%
Cincinnati win chance
vs New York City · Wed 19 Aug 23:30

Cincinnati prediction: for Cincinnati's next match — Cincinnati vs New York City on Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Cincinnati win looks most likely (45%).

Cincinnati sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.48 expected goals a game and conceding 1.69. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 3.00 a game against 1.48 expected. Recent form is good, with 3 wins in their last 5. Next up is New York City FC, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 45%.

Cincinnati in numbers

53 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.8
Goals · per game
let in 1.6
Home 2.1Away 1.5
4.2
Corners · per game
give up 5.3
Home 4.6Away 3.8
13.5
Shots · per game
faced 14.7
Home 14.4Away 12.5
5.5
On target · per game
faced 4.9
Home 5.8Away 5.1
Last 6 games
15 Aug
1-1
@ Orlando City
5-10
12 Aug
1-2
vs Atlas
10-0
08 Aug
2-0
vs UNAM Pumas
4-6
05 Aug
3-1
vs Pachuca
3-6
01 Aug
4-2
vs San Jose Earthquakes
-
25 Jul
1-2
@ Columbus Crew
5-4

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs New York City · Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Win
45%
Cincinnati
Draw
25%
Loss
30%
Opponent
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Cincinnati compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.48
Above average
Goals against
1.69
Leakier than most
Record
5W 4D 3L
12 settled
Real goals
3.0 – 2.7
For / against, per match
Scored1.48
Conceded1.69

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.69 xG per match · +0.24 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Cincinnati fixtures (9/9).

How Bawler has done on Cincinnati

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 12 of 12, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%9/9
Result100%3/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Sun 23 Augvs Seattle Sounders FC

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 16 Aug@ Orlando City SC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 02 Augvs San Jose Earthquakes
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Jul@ Columbus Crew
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Julvs Vancouver Whitecaps
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 Mayvs Orlando City SC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ San Diego FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 14 Mayvs Inter Miami CF
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 10 May@ Charlotte FC
High confidence: X2
Sun 03 May@ Chicago Fire FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 19 Aprvs Chicago Fire
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INFabian MrozekGKfrom LiverpoolLoan
OUTGilberto FloresCBto LibertadLoan
OUTNoah AdnanCBto Loudoun United FCFree transfer
OUTPeter MangioneCMto Brooklyn FCFree transfer
OUTAmir DaleyRWBto Birmingham Legion FCFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Cincinnati and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly